In any case, if you do pentests, think about all the RECENT cases where you break in to a major corporation through:

• a Solaris system with Internet-exposed telnet with a guessable password OR a telnet vulnerability (circa 1994!)
• an exposed VPN appliance with a manufacturer's administrator password
• a router with default "enable" password
• or, something else entirely - but something that rivals the above example in its unparalleled, unbelievable, abysmal, deep idiocy.

Indeed, many of my pentesting friends still report plenty of such cases (one was also featured in the presentation mentioned above). Whenever I hear about it from a pentester, I always ask:

Do you think "somebody bad" had already passed through the hole you just discovered?

Maybe an hour ago, a day ago - or a year ago?!

I cannot see how the answer can be "no."

Even though pentesters usually don't focus on forensics (no time for this), it is not uncommon to notice "your predecessor's" intrusion traces while you break through systems, "plant flags", change screen backgrounds [for the admins to notice that you've been there...], etc.

Let's think what this situation really means? Here are the choices I see:

1. Nobody discovered the hole - a law of large  numbers (aka "dumb luck") have "shielded" the company from an incident. Yes, Virginia, dumb luck IS a security strategy for some companies... AND it works for them.
2. It was discovered, but not used/abused by the attacker - maybe he was busy hacking other systems, or saved this for later and never came back due to his ADD. Congratulation, you win! The immense power of dumb luck wrapped you in a protective "security" blanket ... again :-)
3. It was discovered; the attacker went in, looked around and compromised a few others systems, but found nothing of interest (no low hanging fruits)  - and he was not a bot herder. Again, you win. Next time you are in Vegas, bet on "00."
4. It was discovered; the attacker went in and deployed a bot on "your" system - given how many botnets are there, this situation is clearly acceptable to many organizations. In this case, dumb luck strategy, apparently, still work: so they use your box to spam and phish somebody else ... big deal!
5. It was discovered; the attacker went in and stole all your credit card information (it is now for sale) - even in this case, the user of "the dumb luck strategy" still "wins" (in some perverse sense)! Unless and until the stolen information IS tracked back to you OR a friendly neighborhood PCI auditor come and jams a broomstick up your ..., you can still continue to be stupid at your leisure and ignore basic security practices.
6. It was discovered; the attacker went in and stole your CEO's Inbox, including the email related to his affair (it is now on CNN) - now, in this case, you lose AND it is time to stop being stupid! Welcome to the "0wned world." Time to launch (relaunch?) your security program and get serious.

What does this teach us about RISK? The lesson here is important:

• For a security professional, an Internet-exposed system with "root/root" is an obvious HUGE risk!
• For your boss's boss's boss, it is NOT!

This is exactly why I think that the most critical problem in security today is METRICS. Metrics that a) work AND mean something to decision makers and b) can be clearly communicated to said decision makers [BTW, a) and b) are two separate problems.] Metrics that cover not only threats and vulnerabilities we face, but also the effectiveness of security countermeasures we deploy. Metrics you can act on - and ones your boss (and his boss) will act on. Metrics that lead to correct decisions about which risks to accept, which to  mitigate (all while knowing with what efficiency such mitigation occurs) and which to transfer.

Until that time, the dreaded "C-word" (compliance) will trump "the other C-word" (common sense) as a driver for security ... and we will continue to live in the "0wned world."

Possibly related posts:

• Risk vs Risk 

Saw these interesting quotes by John Thompson in this article by Ellen Messmer. 

On Cisco: "It shows Cisco would rather work with anyone other than Symantec. Cisco has a philosophical point of view that if you compete with me, you can't partner with me."  Amen to that John!

On McAfee: "It's a nice little company and they do a nice job. The industry needs competition." Ouch, that was mean!

On Microsoft entering security: "It's been much ado about nothing. Their results have been fairly abysmal .."

Seeing John this sharp leads me to believe me must be feeling the pressure over at Big Yellow.  And people say I am tough on my competitors!

Saw these interesting quotes by John Thompson in this article by Ellen Messmer. 

On Cisco: "It shows Cisco would rather work with anyone other than Symantec. Cisco has a philosophical point of view that if you compete with me, you can't partner with me."  Amen to that John!

On McAfee: "It's a nice little company and they do a nice job. The industry needs competition." Ouch, that was mean!

On Microsoft entering security: "It's been much ado about nothing. Their results have been fairly abysmal .."

Seeing John this sharp leads me to believe me must be feeling the pressure over at Big Yellow.  And people say I am tough on my competitors!