We read many stories on the net where folks claim that the current financial crisis could have been avoided with more or better use of technology.     This is expected, as software companies and IT professionals will often try to piggy-backtheir business development strategy on the “crisis of the day” to sell more goods and services.    Honestly, in this current situation, the main technology that we needed was simple, accurate financial models.

For example, in the chart above, the US economy was doing quite well with US federal funds rates low.   Housing prices in the US were skyrocketing and there was a concern about inflation.    There was an understandable concern the sustainability of that economy.

So, in perhaps one the most ill-advised Federal Reserve actions of many decades, the folks at the helm of the Fed decided to raise their lending rates around 500 percent over a two year period.

As we all know, primarily because of the action by the Fed, the world faces perhaps the worst economic disaster in modern times, while the US Executive Branch and the Congress fight over how to spend $700 Billion taxpayer dollars to inject liquidity into the markets to try to head off a global financial disaster.

It is amazing to me that the US Federal Government, or their advisors, does not have simple financial models with cause-and-effect analysis such as:

• Homeowners with adjustable rate mortuages will not be able to make payments;and
• Housing prices will fall dramatically; then
• Homeowners will default on loans where the collateral is much less than the asset value, and
• Banks will suffer great losses, and
• Lending will come to a halt, then
• Banks will collapse, then
• Wall Street will exit the markets in panic
• … and more trouble….. !!

There are and continue to be a lot of discussion and opinions about how risk management needs improvement. and I agree.   We will also read folks talk about how technology can be used to help solve this problem, including CEP/EP and related software (see also Capital Market CEP Fantasy Land). However, as much I would be pleased to see more CEP/EP applications and use cases, I do not believe that event processing technology is really very useful to solve the core problem of the current financial crisis.

The core problem is, seemingly, that our “financial experts” do not even have simple models that will illustrate what will or could happen when you raise the fed lending rates 500 percent in two years in an economy pregnant with adjustable rate mortgages.

To me, this does not appear to be rocket science.  The negligence by the US Federal Reserve and their advisors is astonishing.

Someone on the IE security team forwarded me a document that had additional details. So here, for your enjoyment, is a chart listing the default settings for each security level. To answer the newsgroup poster, "medium" and "medium-high" aren't the same.

About the formatting: to get it to fit within the width of the blog's text section, I've made some abbreviations.

In a few cases, the table shows a number rather than D or E or P; below the table is a description of each such entry.

At the very bottom of this post I've included the settings from the privacy tab, too.

Note: these settings reflect those for Internet Explorer 7 on Vista SP1. Please see the MDSN link above for differences between IE 6 and IE 7.

.NET Framework

.NET Framework-reliant components

     1 = High safety

ActiveX controls and plug-ins

Downloads

Enable .NET Framework setup

Miscellaneous

     1 = Prohibit downloads from software update channels
     2 = Cache content downloaded from software update channels
     3 = Automatically install software updates

Scripting

User authentication

     1 = Prompt the user for name and password
     2 = Automatic logon only in intranet zone
     3 = Automatic logon with current user name and password

Privacy settings (on the "Privacy" tab)

So that's what he asked for, and that's what he got. And now it's time to create some cryptographic applications for the rings. Cory and I are holding an open contest for the cleverest application.

I don't think we can invent any encryption algorithms that will survive computer analysis -- there's just not enough entropy in the system -- but we can come up with some clever pencil-and-paper ciphers that will serve them well if they're ever stuck back in time. And there are certainly other cryptographic uses for the rings.

Here's a way to use the rings as a password mnemonic: First, choose a two-letter key. Align the three wheels according to the key. For example, if the key is "EB" for eBay, align the three wheels AEB. Take the common password "PASSWORD" and encrypt it. For each letter, find it on the top wheel. Count one letter to the left if there is a dot over the letter, and one letter to the right if there is a dot under it. Take that new letter and look at the letter below it (in the middle wheel). Count two letters to the left if there is a dot over it, and two letters to the right if there is a dot under it. Take that new letter (in the middle wheel), and look at the letter below it (in the lower wheel). Count three letters to the left if there is a dot over it, and three letters to the right if there is a dot under it. That's your encrypted letter. Do that with every letter to get your password.

"PASSWORD" and the key "EB" becomes "NXPPVVOF."

It's not very good; can anyone see why? (Ignore for now whether or not publishing this on a blog makes it no longer secure.)

How can I do that better? What else can we do with the rings? Can we incorporate other elements -- a deck of playing cards as in Solitaire, different-sized coins to make the system more secure?

Post your contest entries as comments to Cory's blog post -- you can post them here, but they're not going to count as contest submissions -- or send them to cryptocontest@craphound.com. Deadline is October 1st.

Good luck, and have fun with this.

At the moment, event correlation and event analysis is Gartner’s closest magic quadrant (MQ)  that relates directly to complex event processing (and event processing in general).    

A number of our friends and colleagues would like to position CEP as BRE, BRMS, BPM, SOA, algo trading and just about every other technology under the sun, except event correlation!

In a nutshell, the state-of-the-state of CEP/EP is that a number of firms in the software industry have found some “uncharted magic quadrant waters” and are positioning themselves to be “chart worthy”. Instead of competing head on with the experienced players (event correlation and analysis) that have been in the event processing field for many years.   

As I have mentioned a few times here on The CEP Blog, if the current generation self-described CEP engines were leading the industry in event correlation and analysis (CEP’s core technology domain) they would be either be on Gartner’s Magic Quadrant for IT Event Correlation and Analysis, or possibly acquired by a one of these large giants in event processing to solve complex event processing and event correlation problems that remain, for the most part, still unsolved!

To kick off our celebration of our first five years, we asked ScienceLogic founders Dave Link, Richard Chart and Chris Cordray for their thoughts and memories on events leading to today’s milestone. How and why did they set out on this venture? What happened along the way – expected and unexpected? Why were they successful in times when other new (and established) businesses have come and gone?

How did you three put together this team?

We all worked together at a large Managed Service Provider for a couple of years before leaving to start ScienceLogic, so we all knew each other and knew our collective strengths. More importantly, each of us had worked with network management tools on some level (sales and marketing, engineering and product development), and knew first-hand all of the customer pain points, from every perspective. So we left and began rapidly figuring out how to build a better network management solution based upon our real world operational experience..

Dave: One interesting aspect is that our areas of expertise don’t overlap, which has contributed to our success. Chris is excellent with developing the product front-end and interface, Richard handled the backend architecture and engineering and I focused on the technical business side of sales and marketing. Our roles have been to build a product that works well and that provides real value to operations teams that experience the same day to day frustrations that we felt.

Whose idea was it to start the company?

Dave: It was really a collective effort. We were all passionate about “getting it right” and not just starting a company. We knew the industry need and between us, we had the knowledge and skill sets to address all of the right aspects of developing a product and a building a business around it.

What process did you go through to get started?

Richard: From the beginning we knew the type of solution the market needed and we knew that we wanted to build it as an appliance. From different vantage points, we had each experienced the effects of long, difficult and expensive installations that still exist with traditional network tools. Every install has unique variations: there are always different server types, varying hardware and software versions, different patches installed, and on and on. Every installation was time consuming and unpredictable. We knew that an appliance model would address all of these variables and save a lot of time on how quickly customers could achieve immediate value.

The harder decisions were around actually starting the business, assessing the market and of course determining the product pricing.

EM7 completely flips the traditional model of complex, lengthy and expensive deployments. How did you convince others that the EM7 Meta-Appliance product was valid?

Dave: Yes, EM7 totally disrupts the traditional model for network management. While others take a narrow approach, we intentionally designed EM7 to focus on the broad problem – managing the data center. How do you cover a variety of technologies and make sure they work seamlessly together? The vision was to make it easier, not harder, for customers.

Chris: I have to give it to Dave – very early on, he realized the power of a demo. If Dave could get in front of someone, he’d make them a believer. He’d use the Peter Falk/Columbo technique of “let me show you one more thing.” It was very effective. It’s getting easier, but even today people sometimes have to see EM7 in action before they become believers.

Can you describe the early days of running a new business?

Dave: ScienceLogic is a classic case of entrepreneurship. For the first year we worked out of our basements. We kept the costs low in every conceivable way and spent the first year developing the product before we even made a sale.

Chris: We stayed at lots of odd places when we were on the road, took cheap flights with multiple layovers and purchased lots of our first test equipment on eBay. This was during the dot-com bust so there was lots of equipment for sale on eBay, really cheap!

Richard: The amount of equipment I had in my house was absolutely crazy. Back then, servers were huge – I had a Cisco 6509 Catalyst, a Compaq Proliant DL380, Brocade switch, IBM Netfinity 4500R, and tons of other machines.

Chris: I had to install a new circuit box at home because I was blowing breakers. I remember when that 6509 crashed, we revived it and it died again. The second death was final.

So you started in your houses – what was your first office space?

Dave: My friend, the CEO at Ernst & Young Technology had a few extra cubes and a data center in their office that they graciously allowed us to use. Their help was an important step in helping us really formalize the business. We started doing well and adding people, but ironically, their company was downsizing. Before long, many of their original YET people were gone and the ScienceLogic team kept growing in to the open cubes.

Our first leased space was converted warehouse space in Chantilly, VA that once housed an internet radio station. It was cool – it had a large salt water fish tank, a loft, a spiral staircase and a Star Trek door that retracted into the walls with the customary lights and “whooshing” sound.

We outgrew the Chantilly space, leading to our current office in Reston, VA.

Who was the first ScienceLogic customer?

Our first paying customer was Martins Point Health Care. We deployed there in July 2004 and are pleased to say they continue to be a ScienceLogic customer. Other early (and still) EM7 customers include Navy Knowledge Online and the Department of Transportation. Nearly all of our customers are still actively using EM7 and renewing their maintenance.

Where do you see the company in the next 5, 10 or 15 years?

Well, our revenue has doubled year-over-year in each of the last three years, so of course we’d like to continue to grow like that or even faster. In five years we’ve gone from three founders to the point where Dave does not know everyone’s fondest childhood memory. We’ll continue to scale our growth to cover the demands of our growing customer base.

Where do you see the industry going over the coming years?

Chris: IT is always moving and gaining in complexity, so network management is also becoming more complicated. There’s increasing diversity, new standards, virtualization and cloud computing. All of these are today’s technologies. Customers have a mix of the old and the new, so EM7 has to accommodate and support both.

Richard: Each generation of products has a new set of ways to monitor, but the “old” doesn’t go away. Even when a new, hot technology comes along, the old technologies still need to be supported. We work to ensure EM7 keeps up with both.

Dave: After five years we’re just hitting our stride and we’re just now reaching the tipping point in awareness of ScienceLogic and EM7. We’re all still passionate about the product and as Chris and Rich said, there’s still a lot do. We’ll continue disrupting the market with EM7. Our vision hasn’t changed, and with the increasing levels of automation that customers demand, the market needs are greater than ever. Our future is as bright, or brighter, than ever and we’ll continue to be looking for smart ways to automate traditionally manual IT Operations processes.

What’s your advice for someone interested in starting their own business?

Chris: Be passionate. That’s what has gotten me through the tough times. I didn’t really appreciate this thought when I heard others say it before. But it’s very true.

Richard: I agree. We met and talked with lots of people who told us, “That’s been done before.” But we kept going because we truly believed in what we were doing and we knew that while our approach was different, that it would be successful.

Richard: Be fearless. You can’t be too nervous and you need to be able to expect and handle the stress because it will be there. You have to learn to accept the stressful times as a necessary part of the process of starting out on your own.

Dave: Know your niche from the beginning and give potential customers a compelling reason to trust you and really benefit from your solution. You have to know the problem, see the gap and have a clear and consistent vision of how to solve the problem. Then you have to execute. If you don’t build your team with “doers” you won’t make it.

Chris: It helps to have friends. ScienceLogic was built on friendships and relationships, starting with the three of us. If you look at our team, most of our hires are referrals – people who developed and maintained great connections with other great people throughout their careers. Maintain your connections and keep in touch with your network of friends.

Well, no, security dweebs, we’re on a public policy kick, probably will be until the end of the year (more on that to follow, stay tuned), so you wouldn’t be so lucky.

The Plum Book’s official title is Government Policy and Supporting Positions and basically it’s a huge staffing chart for the Senior Executive Service–the political appointees.  Congress publishes the Plum Book after each presidential election, so for those of us who remember our civics lessons in high school, that would be every 4 years, and the last one was published in 2004.

In fact, you can see the last edition here.  Caveat:  it’s dry, like the uber-trocken Franken white wine that grows in the fields around where I used to live in Germany–so dry that it sucks the moisture right out of you.

Plum Pickin photo by Secret Tenerife

Now why do we care about the Plum Book?  Well, that’s a good question.  Have a look at some of the staffing plans in the plum book, and you’ll see something missing:  Agency CISOs.

Now, I’m not a rocket scientist on org charts, but it seems to me that unless you put CISOs up to where they’re answerable to the agency head, they’re just a cost center inside the IT department with no visibility to the decision-makers.  Once again, we’ve crippled our security staffs like the old-school way of doing things.

On another note, taking a quick straw poll of the agency CISOs that I know, I think about half of them are political appointees, and half of them are GS-15s.  So what’s the difference?

Well, political appointees (SES) are appointed by the President.  They make a better target because they have much more visibility from the higher-ups they are more political in nature.

GS-scale employees are civil service careerists.  Usually these are the guys who have moved up the ranks in the various agencies and know quite a bit of things.

Which is better?  Well, if you want survivability, then GS-scale is the way to go.  If you want to make the most difference, SES is the ticket.

Most of us will never get the choice. =)

Bookmark to:

Server Core is a “minimal install” option of Windows Server that excludes much of the GUI and many applications – such as Internet Explorer and Windows Media Player – that would be present in a default installation.

In this very short report (download the full report), I perform a brief analysis how much smaller the software footprint is for Windows Server 2008 Server Core and examine a theoretical Server Core version of Windows Server 2003 over the past two years to gauge how much Server Core might convey in terms of reducing security updates.

As shown in the chart, looking at the Windows Server Security Bulletins over the past two years, 40% of them would not have applied to a theoretical Server Core build. The results of the analysis are encouraging in terms of security progress.  Check back in a few weeks and I'll publish my 90 day vulnerability study for Windows Server and we'll look at how this potential is being fulfilled...

By now you probably saw that Dean Drako and Barracuda have made an offer of $7.50 a share (in cash) for Sourefire. This values Sourcefire at about 200 million dollars and is a 13% premium over the Friday closing price. Of course this is well below Sourcefire's historical highs, but than again who is worth what they were a few months ago.  I have a chart on the left that shows stock prices.

So what is behind this deal? I think it is all about ClamAV and the Trend Micro suit.  As readers of my blog know, Trend Micro sued Barracuda a few months ago for patent violations around the way Barracuda uses ClamAV in its appliances.  I think Dean was looking to Sourcefire as the owners of ClamAV to step up and help in the defense of the suit.  I believe to date, that has not happened and Dean is upset with it.  In fact Dean actually mentions that suit and Sourcefire's lack of response on it as one of the two reasons why Barracuda's acquisition would make sense. For the other reason Dean takes a swipe at the Sourcefire management team, saying "We believe that the recent FIRE stock price reflects the execution challenges faced by the company???s management to date." 

I am not sure where Dean comes up with the 200 million to complete this deal, but assume he has lined up financing.  However, at this price I don't think this is more than a stunt.  If Barracuda goes beyond $7.50 a share to $10.00 a share or so, it gets real interesting.  Maybe this puts Sourcefire in play and someone else comes forward with another offer, who knows.  But right now I think Dean is just looking to stir the pot.

Update: As I expected, this morning Sourcefire rejected the Barracuda offer according to this article in BusinessWeek. The Sourcefire board said the 187.4 million dollar offer "is not in the best interests of Sourcefire and its stockholders".  Lets see what Barracuda does next.