Gravity is not the main obstacle for America’s space business. Government is

IN THE spring of 2006 Robert Bigelow needed to take a stand on a trip to Russia to keep a satellite off the floor. The stand was made of aluminium. It had a circular base and legs. It was, says the entrepreneur and head of Bigelow Aerospace in Nevada, “indistinguishable from a common coffee table”. Nonetheless, the American authorities told Mr Bigelow that this coffee table was part of a satellite assembly and so counted as a munition. During the trip it would have to be guarded by two security officers at all times.

Exporting technology has always presented a dilemma for America. The country leads the world in most technologies and some of these give it a military advantage. If export rules are too lax, foreign powers will be able to put American technology in their systems, or copy it. But if the rules are too tight, then it will stifle the industries that depend upon sales to create the next generation of technology.

It is a difficult balance to strike and critics charge that America has erred on the side of stifling. They claim that overly strict export controls have so damaged the space industry that America’s national security is now threatened by its dwindling leadership in space technology. The system, they complain, fails to distinguish between militarily sensitive hardware that should be controlled and widely available commercial technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and solar cells. The zealous application of the export rules is the American space industry’s biggest handicap.

Economists have long understood the corollary concept of Coase's ceiling, a point above which organizations collapse under their own weight -- where hiring someone, however competent, means more work for everyone else than the new hire contributes. Software projects often bump their heads against Coase's ceiling: recall Frederick P. Brooks Jr.'s seminal study, The Mythical Man-Month (Addison-Wesley, 1975), which showed how adding another person onto a project can slow progress and increase errors.

What's new is something consultant and social technologist Clay Shirky calls "Coase's Floor," below which we find projects and activities that aren't worth their organizational costs -- things so esoteric, so frivolous, so nonsensical, or just so thoroughly unimportant that no organization, large or small, would ever bother with them. Things that you shake your head at when you see them and think, "That's ridiculous."

Sounds a lot like the Internet, doesn't it? And that's precisely Shirky's point. His new book, Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations, explores a world where organizational costs are close to zero and where ad hoc, loosely connected groups of unpaid amateurs can create an encyclopedia larger than the Britannica and a computer operating system to challenge Microsoft's.

Shirky teaches at New York University's Interactive Telecommunications Program, but this is no academic book. Sacrificing rigor for readability, Here Comes Everybody is an entertaining as well as informative romp through some of the Internet's signal moments -- the Howard Dean phenomenon, Belarusian protests organized on LiveJournal, the lost cellphone of a woman named Ivanna, Meetup.com, flash mobs, Twitter, and more -- which Shirky uses to illustrate his points.

The book is filled with bits of insight and common sense, explaining why young people take better advantage of social tools, how the Internet affects social change, and how most Internet discourse falls somewhere between dinnertime conversation and publishing.

Shirky notes that "most user-generated content isn't 'content' at all, in the sense of being created for general consumption, any more than a phone call between you and a sibling is 'family-generated content.' Most of what gets created on any given day is just the ordinary stuff of life -- gossip, little updates, thinking out loud -- but now it's done in the same medium as professionally produced material. Unlike professionally produced material, however, Internet content can be organized after the fact."

No one coordinates Flickr's 6 million to 8 million users. Yet Flickr had the first photos from the 2005 London Transport bombings, beating the traditional news media. Why? People with cellphone cameras uploaded their photos to Flickr. They coordinated themselves using tools that Flickr provides. This is the sort of impromptu organization the Internet is ideally suited for. Shirky explains how these moments are harbingers of a future that can self-organize without formal hierarchies.

These nonorganizations allow for contributions from a wider group of people. A newspaper has to pay someone to take photos; it can't be bothered to hire someone to stand around London underground stations waiting for a major event. Similarly, Microsoft has to pay a programmer full time, and Encyclopedia Britannica has to pay someone to write articles. But Flickr can make use of a person with just one photo to contribute, Linux can harness the work of a programmer with little time, and Wikipedia benefits if someone corrects just a single typo. These aggregations of millions of actions that were previously below the Coasean floor have enormous potential.

But a flash mob is still a mob. In a world where the Coasean floor is at ground level, all sorts of organizations appear, including ones you might not like: violent political organizations, hate groups, Holocaust deniers, and so on. (Shirky's discussion of teen anorexia support groups makes for very disturbing reading.) This has considerable implications for security, both online and off.

We never realized how much our security could be attributed to distance and inconvenience -- how difficult it is to recruit, organize, coordinate, and communicate without formal organizations. That inadvertent measure of security is now gone. Bad guys, from hacker groups to terrorist groups, will use the same ad hoc organizational technologies that the rest of us do. And while there has been some success in closing down individual Web pages, discussion groups, and blogs, these are just stopgap measures.

In the end, a virtual community is still a community, and it needs to be treated as such. And just as the best way to keep a neighborhood safe is for a policeman to walk around it, the best way to keep a virtual community safe is to have a virtual police presence.

Crime isn't the only danger; there is also isolation. If people can segregate themselves in ever-increasingly specialized groups, then they're less likely to be exposed to alternative ideas. We see a mild form of this in the current political trend of rival political parties having their own news sources, their own narratives, and their own facts. Increased radicalization is another danger lurking below the Coasean floor.

There's no going back, though. We've all figured out that the Internet makes freedom of speech a much harder right to take away. As Shirky demonstrates, Web 2.0 is having the same effect on freedom of assembly. The consequences of this won't be fully seen for years.

Here Comes Everybody covers some of the same ground as Yochai Benkler's Wealth of Networks. But when I had to explain to one of my corporate attorneys how the Internet has changed the nature of public discourse, Shirky's book is the one I recommended.

This essay previously appeared in IEEE Spectrum.

This is a quick and dirty video documentary of the things that when on around the talks and event at Phreaknic 12 (2008). Don't watch if you get sick at shaky cam movies like Blair Witch or Cloverfield. A rough timeline of the content in the video is as follows:

        Intro and leaving Louisville with Brian. Morgellon talks about hacking the Arduino micro controller platform. Sorteal talks about the LiVes Open Source video editor. AT&T Batman building by night. Mojo-JoJo soldering some stuff for the shooting range. The patron gods of hackerdom. Registration. Con swag overview. Morgellon  gets his discreet logic on. AK-47 building with HandGrip and Buttstock. Froggy talks up Notacon, which I plan to go to next year. Skydog explains the Jware chair toss event, and then we compete. Rootwars hacker wargames. I ask Int80 about using his nerdcore music in some of my videos. NotLarry explains rootwars. Some iPhone hacking with Lee Baird and John Skinner. I do a little Bluecaseing/Warnibbling with the Bluetooth on my Nokia n810. John, Lee, Brian and I go to the German restaurant. I blind DOSman with the light from my camera and check out what folks are doing with the Arduinos Droops brought for folks to play with. I check back in on R00tW4rz. I blind Droops. I talk Ettercap filters with operat0r. USB door key fun with the Arduino. More breadboard fun. Nokia n810 + Ettercap Filter + Lemon-part = win. Int80 gets down with his own bad self, and the rest of Phreaknic. I find an energy drink with protein. Folks play with the hardware keyloggers I brought, and we have some epic fail with the IBM Model M + USB adapter + Mac OS 10.5. Winn Schwartau joins in on the keylogger fun. DOSman and Zack use a directional antenna from the 9th floor to search downtown Nashville for WiFi access points. Zoom in on Al. John and Lee eat jerky. Daren and Shannon from Hak5 blind me this time. :) Then they do a quick interview. I interview TRiP about the legalities of wardriving, sniffing and leaving your access point open so you have plausible deniability of copyright infringement (most likely it won't hold water in court if you are a computer geek). I give Hak5 Daren beef jerky. Ziplock had more con badges than God. I meet up with Iridium. I talk with Nightcarnage about the audio/video setup at Phreaknic. As I predicted, the Potters won the WiFi Race. I say why this was the best Phreaknic ever. Using green lasers on crack dealers. Techno in the dark, the Aiptek action HD does not do well in low light. Nicodemius shows off his Minority Report like multi-touch table. Hula hoop contest. I check back in with Jeff Cotton and his USB keyed door. I strap on my gear to leave the con. Brian and I do a wrap up of our thoughts on Phreaknic 2008.

This is a quick and dirty video documentary of the things that when on around the talks and event at Phreaknic 12 (2008). Don't watch if you get sick at shaky cam movies like Blair Witch or Cloverfield. A rough timeline of the content in the video is as follows:

        Intro and leaving Louisville with Brian. Morgellon talks about hacking the Arduino micro controller platform. Sorteal talks about the LiVes Open Source video editor. AT&T Batman building by night. Mojo-JoJo soldering some stuff for the shooting range. The patron gods of hackerdom. Registration. Con swag overview. Morgellon  gets his discreet logic on. AK-47 building with HandGrip and Buttstock. Froggy talks up Notacon, which I plan to go to next year. Skydog explains the Jware chair toss event, and then we compete. Rootwars hacker wargames. I ask Int80 about using his nerdcore music in some of my videos. NotLarry explains rootwars. Some iPhone hacking with Lee Baird and John Skinner. I do a little Bluecaseing/Warnibbling with the Bluetooth on my Nokia n810. John, Lee, Brian and I go to the German restaurant. I blind DOSman with the light from my camera and check out what folks are doing with the Arduinos Droops brought for folks to play with. I check back in on R00tW4rz. I blind Droops. I talk Ettercap filters with operat0r. USB door key fun with the Arduino. More breadboard fun. Nokia n810 + Ettercap Filter + Lemon-part = win. Int80 gets down with his own bad self, and the rest of Phreaknic. I find an energy drink with protein. Folks play with the hardware keyloggers I brought, and we have some epic fail with the IBM Model M + USB adapter + Mac OS 10.5. Winn Schwartau joins in on the keylogger fun. DOSman and Zack use a directional antenna from the 9th floor to search downtown Nashville for WiFi access points. Zoom in on Al. John and Lee eat jerky. Daren and Shannon from Hak5 blind me this time. :) Then they do a quick interview. I interview TRiP about the legalities of wardriving, sniffing and leaving your access point open so you have plausible deniability of copyright infringement (most likely it won't hold water in court if you are a computer geek). I give Hak5 Daren beef jerky. Ziplock had more con badges than God. I meet up with Iridium. I talk with Nightcarnage about the audio/video setup at Phreaknic. As I predicted, the Potters won the WiFi Race. I say why this was the best Phreaknic ever. Using green lasers on crack dealers. Techno in the dark, the Aiptek action HD does not do well in low light. Nicodemius shows off his Minority Report like multi-touch table. Hula hoop contest. I check back in with Jeff Cotton and his USB keyed door. I strap on my gear to leave the con. Brian and I do a wrap up of our thoughts on Phreaknic 2008.

This is a quick and dirty video documentary of the things that when on around the talks and event at Phreaknic 12 (2008). Don't watch if you get sick at shaky cam movies like Blair Witch or Cloverfield. A rough timeline of the content in the video is as follows:

        Intro and leaving Louisville with Brian. Morgellon talks about hacking the Arduino micro controller platform. Sorteal talks about the LiVes Open Source video editor. AT&T Batman building by night. Mojo-JoJo soldering some stuff for the shooting range. The patron gods of hackerdom. Registration. Con swag overview. Morgellon  gets his discreet logic on. AK-47 building with HandGrip and Buttstock. Froggy talks up Notacon, which I plan to go to next year. Skydog explains the Jware chair toss event, and then we compete. Rootwars hacker wargames. I ask Int80 about using his nerdcore music in some of my videos. NotLarry explains rootwars. Some iPhone hacking with Lee Baird and John Skinner. I do a little Bluecaseing/Warnibbling with the Bluetooth on my Nokia n810. John, Lee, Brian and I go to the German restaurant. I blind DOSman with the light from my camera and check out what folks are doing with the Arduinos Droops brought for folks to play with. I check back in on R00tW4rz. I blind Droops. I talk Ettercap filters with operat0r. USB door key fun with the Arduino. More breadboard fun. Nokia n810 + Ettercap Filter + Lemon-part = win. Int80 gets down with his own bad self, and the rest of Phreaknic. I find an energy drink with protein. Folks play with the hardware keyloggers I brought, and we have some epic fail with the IBM Model M + USB adapter + Mac OS 10.5. Winn Schwartau joins in on the keylogger fun. DOSman and Zack use a directional antenna from the 9th floor to search downtown Nashville for WiFi access points. Zoom in on Al. John and Lee eat jerky. Daren and Shannon from Hak5 blind me this time. :) Then they do a quick interview. I interview TRiP about the legalities of wardriving, sniffing and leaving your access point open so you have plausible deniability of copyright infringement (most likely it won't hold water in court if you are a computer geek). I give Hak5 Daren beef jerky. Ziplock had more con badges than God. I meet up with Iridium. I talk with Nightcarnage about the audio/video setup at Phreaknic. As I predicted, the Potters won the WiFi Race. I say why this was the best Phreaknic ever. Using green lasers on crack dealers. Techno in the dark, the Aiptek action HD does not do well in low light. Nicodemius shows off his Minority Report like multi-touch table. Hula hoop contest. I check back in with Jeff Cotton and his USB keyed door. I strap on my gear to leave the con. Brian and I do a wrap up of our thoughts on Phreaknic 2008.

Charlie Rose:  
And so when you look at where we are going, there seems to be two issues that are apparent to me at least, risk and leverage.  We just lost sight of risk and leverage of what was appropriate?

Warren Buffett:  
Yeah.  Again, because it pays off for a while.  You know, you can lose leverage, and it's the only way a smart guy can go broke.  If you owe money, you can't pay them out.  You just pay for everything, you do smart things, you eventually get very rich.  If you do smart things and use leverage and do one wrong thing along the way, it could wipe you out, because anything times zero is zero.  But it's reinforcing when the people around you are doing it successfully, you're doing it successfully, and it's a lot like Cinderella at the ball.  I mean you know at midnight everything is going to turn to pumpkins and mice; right?  But if the evening goes along, I mean, you know, the guys look better all the time, the music sounds better, it's more and more fun, you think why the hell should I leave at quarter of 12.  I'll leave at two minutes to 12.  But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall.  And everybody thinks they're going to leave at two minutes to 12.

Charlie Rose:  
And should wise people have known better?

Warren Buffett:  
People should always know better.

Charlie Rose:  
Yeah.

Warren Buffett:  
I mean people -- people don't get -- they don't get smarter about things that get as basic as greed and you can't stand to see your neighbor getting rich.  You know you're smarter than he is, and he's doing these things, you know, and he's getting rich, and your spouse is getting unhappy with you because you aren't doing -- pretty soon you start doing it.  And so you get what I call the natural progression, the three Is.  The innovators, the imitators, and the idiots.  And that's what happens.  Everybody just kind of goes along.  And you look kind of silly if you disagree.  I mean, you know, you could have these crazy Internet valuations in the late 1990s, but they prove themselves out in the market.  The next day they were selling for more than they were the day before, and people said, you know, you're crazy if you don't get in on this.  So it's very human.  Now, with housing it's something even more dramatic than that, because most people aspire to own their own home.  And if you really think that houses prices are going to go up next year and the year after, you feel if I don't buy it this year, I'm going to have to buy it next year.  That's not true of an Internet stock.  But it's true of a home.  And when somebody makes it very easy for you to do it by saying you don't really have to put up my money, you can lie about your income a little, or we'll give you 100 percent mortgage, you're going to do it, because everybody that's done it has been proven right.  You have what they call social tools, and, you know, you're going to feel like an idiot if you didn't do it, because the house cost more.

Warren Buffett:  
Oh, I think confidence will come back.  I will tell you this.  This country is going -- be living better ten years from now than it is now.  It will be living better in 20 years from now than ten years from now.  The ingredients that made this country, you know, the miracle of the world -- I mean we had a seven for one improvement in the average American standard of living in the 20th century.  Now, we had the great depression, we had two world wars, we had the flu epidemic.  You know, we had oil shock.  You know, we had all these terrible things happen.  But something about the American system unleashed more and of a potential to human beings over that hundred years so that we had a seven for one improvement in -- there's never been any -- I mean, you have centuries where if you've got a 1 percent improvement, then it's something.  So we've got a great system.  And we've got more productive capacity now than we ever have.  The American worker is more productive than he's ever been.  We've got more people to do it.  We've got all the ingredients for a sensational future.  It's just that right now the athlete's on the floor.  But we -- this is a super athlete.