Gravity is not the main obstacle for America’s space business. Government is

IN THE spring of 2006 Robert Bigelow needed to take a stand on a trip to Russia to keep a satellite off the floor. The stand was made of aluminium. It had a circular base and legs. It was, says the entrepreneur and head of Bigelow Aerospace in Nevada, “indistinguishable from a common coffee table”. Nonetheless, the American authorities told Mr Bigelow that this coffee table was part of a satellite assembly and so counted as a munition. During the trip it would have to be guarded by two security officers at all times.

Exporting technology has always presented a dilemma for America. The country leads the world in most technologies and some of these give it a military advantage. If export rules are too lax, foreign powers will be able to put American technology in their systems, or copy it. But if the rules are too tight, then it will stifle the industries that depend upon sales to create the next generation of technology.

It is a difficult balance to strike and critics charge that America has erred on the side of stifling. They claim that overly strict export controls have so damaged the space industry that America’s national security is now threatened by its dwindling leadership in space technology. The system, they complain, fails to distinguish between militarily sensitive hardware that should be controlled and widely available commercial technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and solar cells. The zealous application of the export rules is the American space industry’s biggest handicap.

The sky is falling! Trip Chowdhry, the analyst with Global Equities Research who claimed Red Hat was ‘rubbish and the entire LAMP stack is potty, too’ published some eye-opening predictions, predominantly negative, about tech business in Silicon Valley. Now Chowdhry claims that “almost every VC funded open-source company is struggling and will run out of money within the next six months.” (Probably not the most unbiased guy about open source) Matt Asay argues that organizations in general are struggling, but open-source companies are not that high on the list. (But are they high on the VC “axe” list??) He notes Alfresco, Pentaho and JasperSoft are some of the players with ‘millions in the bank and growing revenue.’ Asay also says Chowdhry has a responsibility to do real due diligence and not create myths. Take that, Chicken Little! (img from Disney-Clipart)

We’re not as far behind as we thought we were. Google presented the results of a study they conducted about how IPv6- capable “ordinary users” are at the RIPE meeting in Dubai a few weeks ago. Turns out Apple Macs drive IPv6 penetration in the US. Fifty-two percent of all IPv6 users in the U.S. own a Mac and use 6to4 (creating IPv6 addresses from an IPv4 address and tunneling packets) – making the US fifth in the list of countries using IPv6. Russia and France took first and second place with .76 and .65 percent IPv6-enabled traffic . The US is at .45 percent. Worldwide, 0.238 percent of Google users’ systems are IPv6-enabled and prefer to use IPv6 over IPv4.

Obama’s win = Google’s win? Apparently Google CEO Eric Schmidt and President-Elect Obama are very good buddies and “this terrifies Microsoft”. Now competitors are more on guard against Google’s growing empire and popularity. Although Schmidt was mentioned as a possible candidate for the country’s new national CTO position, he said he would not accept the post if asked. I guess that’s one less thing Microsoft has to worry about.

OnAir has so far tested their calling/texting-only service on two aircraft--one operated by Air France, one by TAP Portugal--even though RyanAir announced plans that its planes would started being unwired with the service by late 2007. Still no word on that fleet progress.

Qantas will apparently launch cached Web browsing and limited Web email (probably through a proxy) along with instant messaging, with full Internet service coming "later in 2009." This is clearly due to a lack of satellite coverage that was just remediated a few weeks ago (see below). The first plane with limited service, a new A380, should be in flight 20-October-2008.

The Morning Herald seems to overstate the importance and scope of a complaint filed by the union representing American Airlines' flight attendants. The detailed coverage in the U.S. had more to do with the potential for issues, and likely attendants lack of interest in policing yet another media on the plane. Filtering doesn't work, the attendants probably already know, and this may just be a negotiating point with the airline.

On why Qantas is waiting until late 2009? This requires unwinding how OnAir gets its signal.

Aeromobile and OnAir both rely on Inmarsat satellites for their service. Both companies had several years ago staked their futures on the fourth-generation network Inmarsat was to inaugurate with three satellites that would use beamforming to allow precise delivery of nearly 500 Kbps per receiver, with hundreds or thousands of regions being able to be targeted from a single satellite. Inmarsat's third-gen network--don't confuse this with 3G cellular ground-based networks--can deliver about 64 Kbps per channel.

Now, unfortunately, Inmarsat was three years late on launching its trans-Pacific bird. While the company claims 85 percent coverage of the earth and 98 percent coverage of population, there's a big gap over the Pacific that also prevents them from having good overlap between the U.S. and Japan/China/Korea, as well as the southern Pacific, covering Australia. Since the biggest market for long-haul flights would likely be Australia, Japan, and China, traveling trans-Pacific or trans-hemispheric routes, that gap is rather large.

Aeromobile opted to build out a service, deployed only by Emirates airline as far as I can tell, that uses the 3G service since it was available, and most necessary equipment is already installed on most over-water planes. OnAir was waiting for 4G, which has necessitated a long wait, but allowed them to launch in Europe with a seemingly next-generation service. Given that OnAir is controlled by an airline-owned integration firm, SITA, and by Airbus, they're not going anywhere.

Inmarsat finally lofted its third satellite on Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on 19-August-2008, and the launch and separation was reported as successful. Previously, the company has needed up to a year to verify and deploy its 4G satellites. (You can read extremely close coverage of the launch at a Web site devoted to space enthusiasm.)

However, the dirty little secret about Inmarsat's BGAN is that it costs a fortune to heft bandwidth across it. Thus, in-flight broadband over BGAN, if it's ever available, is going to be changed on an extremely high per-MB rate. None of the providers want to say this. This is in contrast to Row 44 (and, once, Connexion by Boeing), which relies on leased Ku-band transponders where they can fix costs and they require high volumes to keep per-bit costs efffectively low.

OnAir's launch of calling on Air France's service involves paying a few euros per minute for calls, which might help you understand what data costs could ultimately run.

Parlez-vous open source? While wide-spread open source usage is still debated in many companies, the French have been advocating for all open source all the time in government and education. French President Nicolas Sarkozy set up an economic commission that recommended tax benefits to stimulate more open source development. Lesson learned from France: start ‘em early. “All students in France use open source.”

Just in time for Labor Day, John Edwards (no, not that one) comes out with an informative guide on “Who provides what in the cloud”. No doubt, this will be a rapidly expanding list, but what’s really interesting is the comment on the article. People have very strong opinions on the cloud…

Research firm Aberdeen Group reports that network costs will increase slightly more than 5 percent over 2007. Contributing factors: “need for speed”, shift from standard to mobile PCs (more end points of connectivity), and the ever-expanding network. And of course the hidden costs of multiple tools with multiple management consoles – if you’re not smart enough to choose say a comprehensive network management solution that is vendor agnostic…One tool to monitor them all…

And just because I miss the Olympics already, here’s an irreverent take on what it’s like to lose to Michael Phelps. http://www.thetechstop.net/?p=1503

Enjoy your long Labor Day Weekend!

One of his favorite OSS stories involved a colleague sent to occupied France to destroy a seemingly impenetrable German tank at a key crossroads. The French resistance found that grenades were no use.

The OSS man, fluent in German and dressed like a French peasant, walked up to the tank and yelled, "Mail!"

The lid opened, and in went two grenades.

Hall's book about his OSS days, You're Stepping on My Cloak and Dagger, is a must read.

According to the consultant who snared Marester, his quarry’s skills appear quite sophisticated. His wares, if they performed as advertised, could help a hacker take down machines running that particular software anywhere in the world. His real name is Steve Rigano; he’s a self-employed network consultant from Grenoble, France, who works full time at HP, where he is listed in the switchboard and maintains an hp.com email address. He told me that he saw nothing wrong with offering tools and techniques that targeted the company providing his paycheck.

A self-taught hacker, Rigano says he discovered the vulnerabilities and coded the exploits on his own time, which he says is none of HP’s business. “I have the right to sell what I want,” he says. He told me he attracted mostly Chinese and Russian buyers, but claimed he never found takers for the HP or SAP “vulns” and exploits. He said he stopped selling black-market code in January but didn’t explain why.

Most security companies I have been acquainted with frown on this type of activity, as I am sure HP has. It’s hard for them to sell security products and services when their employees are selling the very tools the company is purportedly defending against.

Ted Morgan, the head of Skyhook, explained in an interview that while GPS is certainly the gold standard, and while it works well in stand-alone devices designed for continuous use and navigation, it's not the right choice by itself for mobile devices. It can take 5 or 10 minutes for a GPS-only device to get an accurate fix on the satellites it needs to give you accurate information. (Various shortcuts can provide less accurate information more quickly.)

"This notion of 'tell a user or consumer to stand outside for 30 seconds before they can search for the nearest pharmacy' is pretty silly," Morgan said. He noted that with all the radios now found in newer mobile devices, using several of them produces a fast and much more accurate result. The iPhone 3G, for instance, sports quad-band 2G, tri-band 3G, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and GPS chips.

Morgan said that A-GPS (assisted GPS) already combines cell tower information with GPS. A cell phone can be told approximately where it is, and thus instead of cycling through 24 satellites, start with the two that are most directly overhead. This can reduce the time to gain a location to as little as 20 seconds, Morgan said, although any kind of movement usually lengthens the time to 30 to 60 seconds.

Skyhook's system takes advantage of this aspect of A-GPS. They let a GPS system grab onto two satellites quickly to correct data from their Wi-Fi Position System (WPS). Morgan said that this reduces the WPS error by 35 to 40 percent through "weak fixes."

Within cities' concrete canyons, "you can only get a true GPS fix about 70 percent of the time outdoor, but you get two satellites all the time," Morgan said. "In the entire footprint, we're able to use this hybrid technology, even though GPS is only available 70 percent of the time." Outside of metro areas, cell towers can still be used to improve GPS startup times.

Skyhook has continued to expand its European coverage for WPS; they cover about 8,000 cities in the US and Canada, which is roughly 70 percent of the population; "it looks exactly like a cellular coverage map," Morgan said, and includes "any town with five streets in it."

In Europe, their current big push, partly because of their inclusion in the iPhone, they cover 70 percent of population in the current countries--the UK, France, and Germany--but they're now at 50 percent of the population of the rest of Western Europe. They're working assiduously in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, and Australia as well, and looking into China and India. India has very little Wi-Fi, so they may rely more on cell towers there.

The company also announced a partnership with wireless chip maker CSR today, which is a major providers of Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chips to computer and handset makers. Nearly a year and a half ago, Skyhook partnered with SiRF, the dominant worldwide chip supplier for stand-alone GPS gear, that's also making a push into mobile devices. Skyhook obviously needs a win with a cell chip maker, like Infineon, Broadcom, or Qualcomm, given the XPS technology, to score a place in tens of millions of cell phones beyond the iPhone.

Skyhook's technology most recently appeared in a soon-to-ship model of the Eye-Fi--the Explore. The $130 Secure Digital card with Wi-Fi built in allows you to take pictures with any camera, and have the Wi-Fi signal space recorded for later lookup when you upload photos. The pictures are geotagged with that information. The card can optionally be used with Wayport's 10,000 strong Wi-Fi network in the U.S for $15 extra per month. David Pogue of The New York Times recently wrote up the Eye-Fi Explore.