When I walked up on stage and accepted the Inc 500 award, it hit me square in the face that this is a rare accomplishment, and even more difficult for a product company that started without the benefit of VC funding.

Dave with wife, Anne, at the awards ceremony
Over the 2 day period, I heard from some great speakers with entrepreneurial passion, many who never had accomplished making the list. It is so highly competitive and just plain hard to do.

I loved hearing some of the speeches during the conference and getting to know other entrepreneurs that attended the conference talk about how they created their niche and ultimately built a successful company from a good idea.

Because I enjoyed hearing some of what I like to call “golden nuggets of wisdom” so much, I thought in my conference wrap-up I would pass on a few to our blog readers:

Tom Peters – Author In Search of Excellence and The New World of WOW

“Only 7% of our great nation works for Fortune 500 companies. Small businesses and the entrepreneurs are the jet fuel that makes our country fly.”

“Brand is shorthand for a collection of experiences, memories of what it will be like the next time a customer deals with you. With the advent of blogs and consumer activism, Brand is impossible to fake; it is like the temperature in the room… it is there… it exists.”

Chester Elton – SVP Carrot Culture Group

“At the casino – they train the heck out of the Valet! Why do they spend 3 months on Valet training? Because he is the first and the last person to greet and interact with a visitor during their trip! Who is your company Valet?”

Paul Bennett – Chief Creative officer IDEO – speaking on — Creating a culture of optimism:

“You need to ditch B-B and B-C Need to become P-P Person to Person.”

“You don’t buy loyalty… you earn it… this is an interesting challenge, but small allows us to behave like human beings… Going off script and doing something human is a great place to start.”

“Stop obsessing about ROI and start obsessing about ROC! Return on Customer/Consumer is much more powerful than ROI!!!!”

“Happy people, unabashedly doing, happy things, makes for happy companies, which create happy businesses which enable happy cultures… IN WHICH THRIVE”

Marilyn Carlson Nelson – Chairman and CEO Carlson Companies – A family owned $40 Billion empire including TGI Fridays, Radisson Hotels…

“My leadership was tested terribly - after 9/11 the travel industry was particularly harmed. It was an extraordinary time for Carlson. “

“Put tactics around these strategic initiatives”

• Whomever you serve, serve with caring
• Whenever you dream – dream with your all
• Wherever you go, go as a leader
• And never, never give up
• Whatever you do – do it with integrity

“That builds trust, trust builds relationships and relationships build results.”

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Actually, I took about 40 pages of notes throughout the two days… So I can’t say that this will be my last summary post on the Inc 500/5000 conference, but I can say that the conference did leave a strong impression about how I can help shape the future of ScienceLogic in an even more positive way.

COBIT rivals ITIL from The IT Skeptic

“Everyone is tiptoeing around the fact that COBIT offers a significant competitive body of knowledge (BOK) to ITIL. Sure ITIL goes into more depth in places, but to say COBIT sits over the top is to grossly understate the overlap. COBIT extends a long way down into the “how” and it does it with an intellectual rigour that ITIL lacks.”

Interesting stuff that.  A detailed mapping might help some folks.  Either way, the good news for those keen on understanding risk management is that governance metrics, done right, allow us to understand a part of that “capability to manage risk” we’re always looking for.   Assurance, verification and the acquisition and interpretation of knowledge is king.   Speaking of which….

How To Tell When “Nothing Happens” by Pete Lindstrom

“…problem is that, it isn’t really true that “nothing happens” when you employ some specific security control to prevent an exploit. Not only that, but even when it is difficult to collect data on what didn’t happen, one can devise experiments to tell how frequently that nothing occurred.”

Good analysis is all about the uncertainty.   Speaking of accounting for uncertainty…

Assets Good Until Reached For by Gunnar Peterson

“If you have a 100,000 dekstops or 100,000 servers it hard to manage. You will need to automate and to do that you need to abstract, but you should also realize that its a drawing on a whiteboard not reality. You need abstraction assurance.”

And there’s the trick.  We might call “abstraction assurance” an analog to “confidence” or “uncertainty” in certain priors (metrics) or posteriors (calculated values based on those metrics).  The stronger that abstraction assurance is, the less uncertainty we have in our knowledge and the better our ability to create wisdom from that knowledge (you know, make decisions).

Epstein, Snow and Flake: Three Views of Software Security by Adam Shostack

Adam’s focus is on software security, but the discussion here can be abstracted out into the broader realm of risk management quite nicely.

Two-thirds of firms hit by cybercrime from Security Focus

The US DoJ says that in 2005 (there’s some timely data) 2/3 of their surveyed firms detected at least one cybercrime.  “Cybercrime” is “classified … into cyber attacks, cyber theft, and other incidents.”  Pretty general.  Also from the report:  “Computer viruses made up more than half of all cyber attacks.”

(That sound you hear is me tapping my forehead lightly on large iron object)

Lessons Learned from “Personal” Risk Management By: Christopher Daugherty

“This process is what I call “personal risk management.”  All of us have done it and will continue to do so.  Why is it, then, many companies have ignored following similar principles with the on-going health of the business?  This is a debate with many different answers so I ask you to select the best answer for your employer:

a) Have not ignored as this keeps me awake at night!

b) Please restate the problem, I cannot hear well with my head buried in the sand.

c) We passed our SOX audit so we checked this off the list!

d) We are informed of the challenge but we have a business to run and profits to make

e) Is this what internal audit and risk management has been telling us?”

Now I’ve been “accused” of being a quant in the past (hi rybolov!) but in reality the only dogs I have in this fight are the model and the application of scientific method - and really, ethically speaking, I have to be tied to the latter while applying the former.

And I see a false dichotomy in this whole Quant vs. Qual thing.  We, as a profession, tend to create a political divide between the two which, if it even exists, I’d say is based more on our ignorance rather than our expertise.  After all, we are the profession that regularly multiplies across ordinal scales and uses wonderful models like R=VxTxI.   As someone  learning to deal in probabilities and rationalism, I have to recognize that this discussion is really just about the act of observation using different metrics of measurement.

But how we’re going about observing does not change the fact that there is measurement based on observation.  So if I’m working with you I can easily turn your qualitative scale into a quantitative one, and vice-versa.  Yes, Shrdlu, if we had the time, even your most seemingly Qual things could be Quant! (This flexible world view, btw, is an outcome of that new-fangled Bayesian thing).

COGNITIVE BIAS A-PLENTY

But back to what Rich is saying there about information security and risk - and he isn’t/won’t be the only one saying these sorts of things - we should try to understand what’s really going on rather than get caught up in the emotional hurricane.  Our profession suffers several forms of cognitive bias.  The nature of our jobs and what we do can cause us to be focused on the outcome and not the quality of the decision at the time it was made.  We want to bring in things from other professions that are useful, but at times we do view things outside our profession with false correlation to our own (unfortunately for those who write these sorts of articles, financial risk is completely different than operational risk).  We also have the tendency to focus on negative outcomes without acknowledging the positive outcomes (For example, I hear that Alan Greenspan’s new firm is up a couple of $billion in all this mess since he joined them, short sellers are doing quite well - must be because they have qualitative models or something -grin-).  The effect of these biases are compounded by the facts that proper correlation takes more work than we usually give it, and rational thought is not that easy when there’s a witch-hunt mentality.

What also floats in water? (link to Youtube)

WHAT SHOULD WE BE THINKING ABOUT?

So as you and I read opinions that seem to be the polar opposite of irrational exuberance (and there will be plenty between now and the election) we’ll have to ask ourselves, “what really failed here?”  At the risk (pun) of over-simplification:

• Was There an Error on the part of Probability Theory?

After all, Probability Science like all other fields of knowledge is always “advancing” as they say.  So perhaps probability theory is wrong somehow?

I’m personally disinclined to put the blame here, primarily because I would think that there would be evidence from other fields (like Quantum Mechanics) that something is amiss waaaaay before it hit a field like economics.

• Was There Error In The Model Used to Determine Risk?

Some people who understand real estate valuation and complex derivatives and financial risk want to put the blame here.  It’s a little too early to tell, but one thing is for sure - Financial risk is so different from operational risk I couldn’t begin to hazard an opinion on the subject.   But it would seem that this is really somewhere we might look.

• Was There Error In The  Scale Used (Quantitative vs. Qualitative)?

Honestly?  I find it extremely difficult to understand how this could be the source of financial ruin.

• Was There Error on the part of the Decision Maker?

What if all of the above were just fine, and the decision maker chose short term gain over long term stability?  What if this was (to simplify the matter greatly) a choice of “heads” over “tails” and the coin landed on tails?  What if the model represented the right risk (probability of negative outcome vs. positive outcome), but the complex derivative was sold to someone else who had poor “risk management” (ability to make a good decisions)?

Now I have no clue about complex derivatives, and I’m oversimplifying to be sure - chances are like most things, there are several problems that helped create the primary cause. But it seems to me that as we go into incident response mode for the economy, it’s more helpful to do so in a rational, logical manner.

OTHER THINGS WE MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER

Consider the Source
Some authors (who I think tend to exploit outcome and hindsight bias,and then combine those with indirect ad hominem attacks in order to sell their books), are actually putting forth arguments against the use of analytics.  The source of this is a current epistemic debate between those who believe that only falsification is certain, and those who maintain that neither proof nor falsification are certain, there are only probabilities.    So before you go believing any “quadrants” of usefulness on faith - I encourage you to understand what is at the heart of the discussion.

We All Have to Live In The Real World
The sun will rise tomorrow, and someone will try to find the source of the problem and do a better job.  Now chances are, they’ll be doing it in a quantitative manner.  Chances are also that at some point their models will fail and we’ll need to build new ones.  And this will happen whether the field is cosmology, economics, meteorology, information security, or professional baseball.

WHAT ABOUT YOU, ALEX?

I’m far from certain and subject to change, but these days I lean towards Robin Hanson & MIchael Lewis w/regards to placing blame.

When an alternate email account or cell phone number is not tied to an account, online services often use personal information, supposedly only known by the account holder, to verify identity and reset a password. The risk here is the personal information is often known to other individuals and if the account holder is a public figure then the information may be easily researched. Birthdays, names of pets, locations of homes, schools, and events can often be discovered online or guessed.

Paris Hilton’s T-Mobile account, and thus all her Sidekick cell phone contents which were mirrored online, was compromised when someone “guessed” the answer to her secret question. The secret questions was, “What is your pet’s name.” The answer of course was, “Tinkerbell”. Something easily researched. Many people would not have their pet’s name online but friends, family members, or perhaps an ex would know the answer. Using a pet’s name is a very bad security practice.

Now we have Sarah Palin, another public figure, having her online account compromised because someone used the password reset functionality and guessed the answer to Sarah Palin’s secret question. This is how the attacker says he found out her personal information and guessed the answer to her secret question. He details this on 4chan.org:

rubico 09/17/08(Wed)12:57:22 No.85782652

Hello, /b/ as many of you might already know, last night sarah palin’s yahoo was “hacked” and caps were posted on /b/, i am the lurker who did it, and i would like to tell the story.

In the past couple days news had come to light about palin using a yahoo mail account, it was in news stories and such, a thread was started full of newfags trying to do something that would not get this off the ground, for the next 2 hours the acct was locked from password recovery presumably from all this bullshit spamming.

after the password recovery was reenabled, it took seriously 45 mins on wikipedia and google to find the info, Birthday? 15 seconds on wikipedia, zip code? well she had always been from wasilla, and it only has 2 zip codes (thanks online postal service!)

the second was somewhat harder, the question was “where did you meet your spouse?” did some research, and apparently she had eloped with mister palin after college, if youll look on some of the screenshits that I took and other fellow anon have so graciously put on photobucket you will see the google search for “palin eloped” or some such in one of the tabs.

I found out later though more research that they met at high school, so I did variations of that, high, high school, eventually hit on “Wasilla high” I promptly changed the password to popcorn and took a cold shower…

Best practices for setting up the password reset functionality of any online service:

1. Tie an account to another email account or cell phone number if that is an option. This will cause the service to send an out of band message and in essence make the password reset a 2-factor authentication.
2. Do not use any personal information that can be guessed as the answers to secret questions. Treat these answers like passwords. Don’t use dictionary words. Add some numbers or symbols to the answer. For example is Sarah Palin had used “Wasilla high 1964″ or “!Wasilla high!” it is far less likely it would be guessed. Pick a scheme to modify your secret answers so they aren’t guessable.
3. Try resetting your password. See if there are downgrade attacks which make it easier to reset the password. Yahoo for instance will allow you to specify that you don’t have access to the email address tied to your account and thus not send a password reset email. Since an attacker can do this the safety of using another account is eliminated thus making the answers to the secret question all that more important.