Charlie Rose:  
And so when you look at where we are going, there seems to be two issues that are apparent to me at least, risk and leverage.  We just lost sight of risk and leverage of what was appropriate?

Warren Buffett:  
Yeah.  Again, because it pays off for a while.  You know, you can lose leverage, and it's the only way a smart guy can go broke.  If you owe money, you can't pay them out.  You just pay for everything, you do smart things, you eventually get very rich.  If you do smart things and use leverage and do one wrong thing along the way, it could wipe you out, because anything times zero is zero.  But it's reinforcing when the people around you are doing it successfully, you're doing it successfully, and it's a lot like Cinderella at the ball.  I mean you know at midnight everything is going to turn to pumpkins and mice; right?  But if the evening goes along, I mean, you know, the guys look better all the time, the music sounds better, it's more and more fun, you think why the hell should I leave at quarter of 12.  I'll leave at two minutes to 12.  But the trouble is, there are no clocks on the wall.  And everybody thinks they're going to leave at two minutes to 12.

Charlie Rose:  
And should wise people have known better?

Warren Buffett:  
People should always know better.

Charlie Rose:  
Yeah.

Warren Buffett:  
I mean people -- people don't get -- they don't get smarter about things that get as basic as greed and you can't stand to see your neighbor getting rich.  You know you're smarter than he is, and he's doing these things, you know, and he's getting rich, and your spouse is getting unhappy with you because you aren't doing -- pretty soon you start doing it.  And so you get what I call the natural progression, the three Is.  The innovators, the imitators, and the idiots.  And that's what happens.  Everybody just kind of goes along.  And you look kind of silly if you disagree.  I mean, you know, you could have these crazy Internet valuations in the late 1990s, but they prove themselves out in the market.  The next day they were selling for more than they were the day before, and people said, you know, you're crazy if you don't get in on this.  So it's very human.  Now, with housing it's something even more dramatic than that, because most people aspire to own their own home.  And if you really think that houses prices are going to go up next year and the year after, you feel if I don't buy it this year, I'm going to have to buy it next year.  That's not true of an Internet stock.  But it's true of a home.  And when somebody makes it very easy for you to do it by saying you don't really have to put up my money, you can lie about your income a little, or we'll give you 100 percent mortgage, you're going to do it, because everybody that's done it has been proven right.  You have what they call social tools, and, you know, you're going to feel like an idiot if you didn't do it, because the house cost more.

Warren Buffett:  
Oh, I think confidence will come back.  I will tell you this.  This country is going -- be living better ten years from now than it is now.  It will be living better in 20 years from now than ten years from now.  The ingredients that made this country, you know, the miracle of the world -- I mean we had a seven for one improvement in the average American standard of living in the 20th century.  Now, we had the great depression, we had two world wars, we had the flu epidemic.  You know, we had oil shock.  You know, we had all these terrible things happen.  But something about the American system unleashed more and of a potential to human beings over that hundred years so that we had a seven for one improvement in -- there's never been any -- I mean, you have centuries where if you've got a 1 percent improvement, then it's something.  So we've got a great system.  And we've got more productive capacity now than we ever have.  The American worker is more productive than he's ever been.  We've got more people to do it.  We've got all the ingredients for a sensational future.  It's just that right now the athlete's on the floor.  But we -- this is a super athlete.

Does Oracle run the world? I would have to say no but Raj (Larry Ellison is his idol) and the 40,000 Oracle customers that descended upon SF last week might beg to differ. What do James Carville and Mary Matalin have to do with enterprise software? Pretty much nothing, except for the fact that they delivered the opening keynote for Oracle OpenWorld. (And that’s the only and last politically-oriented thing you’ll hear from me as we run up to the election). For a surprisingly funny and extensive photo gallery of the eye-popping event, check out cdye1’s photostream on Flickr.

But UB40, Elvis Costello and Seal aside, Oracle OpenWorld did offer training, certifications, and always entertaining speeches by Ellison. Ben Worthen’s favorite – “Larry Ellison’s Brilliant Anti-Cloud Computing Rant” delivered to analysts on Thursday. From Ben’s slightly-edited excerpt:

“The interesting thing about cloud computing is that we’ve redefined cloud computing to include everything that we already do. I can’t think of anything that isn’t cloud computing with all of these announcements. The computer industry is the only industry that is more fashion-driven than women’s fashion. Maybe I’m an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is it? It’s complete gibberish. It’s insane. When is this idiocy going to stop?

“We’ll make cloud computing announcements. I’m not going to fight this thing. But I don’t understand what we would do differently in the light of cloud computing other than change the wording of some of our ads. That’s my view.”

So did everyone catch that? Cloud computing is complete gibberish and idiocy, but apparently Oracle’s already been doing enough around it to advertise the fact. I will have my cake and eat it too!

We’ve been pumping out the posts from the shows we went to – let me tell you, live-blogging is hard when you’re trying to share apparently miniscule amounts of bandwidth with 14,000 other attendees – and we have even more to share as we step back, contemplate and describe how some of the announcements, info and especially roadmaps fit into our overall picture over here at ScienceLogic.

For example, we released the results of our annual industry IT survey last week. Twice a year – at FOSE (for Government IT) and at Interop NY (for enterprises) – we take advantage of the fact that we have a big beautiful booth at these shows and offer a fabulous ScienceLogic t-shirt in return for a couple of minutes time with attendees living the problems we try to solve. Instead of telling people what their problems and priorities are, we like to ask.
Interop NY Survey - Trends and Challenges
Detailed Reports on Trends and Comparison to Government IT

And I just had to share this one because it is so bizarre. Are VMware and Paul Maritz guilty of plagiarism? You have to check this out to get even part of the picture. Apparently this guy has posted his slides (we know they are from VMworld 2007 because it says so in the lower-right-hand corner…) which prove that the “virtual datacenter operating system” idea was his idea a year before it showed up on Maritz’s keynote this year. Hmmm. And then after posting all these slides and making all the connections between his presentation and Maritz’s, he says he’s just kidding about the plagiarism. Can anyone sort this out and let me know?

I’ll tell you who wasn’t kidding when I went by their booth at VMworld – a certain chargeback vendor and VMware “partner” who was quite shocked two months ago when they walked into a meeting with VMware about future roadmap. Apparently, the slides they saw (preview of VMware’s announcement re adding extended chargeback capability within vCenter management services) were mighty might similar to slides they had given in a presentation to VMware about their own roadmap. Coincidence? I’ll let you decide. And I’ll also say, their strategy to combat this – support for Hyper-V coming early in 2009.

John talked about Microsoft’s mission, his perspectives on key industry trends and market opportunity; he touched on Cloud Computing and Virtualization and took some Q&A from the audience of Managed Service Provider executives.

One of his first proclamations - Microsoft has really embraced the heterogeneous environment. Really? How in the world is Microsoft going to help convince IT line managers, or mid level managers to believe this statement? I think they have a long way to go to achieve this vision with any credibility in the marketplace.  I do know that they are making small strides.

Microsoft has been widely credited with some very good blogs that are self critical and introspective. They have also been quite active in the standards boards within DMTF and many others such as Open WSMAN and CIMON (Open Pegasus). Microsoft in February published 30,000 pages detailed technical specifications – protocol documentation for Exchange, since that time they have published another 15,000 pages. They have had over 224,000 downloads since February 21, 2008. Thus they are trying to be more open by making some of these secret sauce protocol resources directly available on the web.

So for now, I will take a very cautious wait and see approach to this proclamation. Time will tell.

Trends

• Rapid growth continues
• Hosting Competition has a new face
  • Platform gorillas (amazooglesoft)
  • Ad supported Web 2.0 hosters (Google, Facebook,)
• Utility Cloud Computing models are expanding to non-traditional hosting companies
  • Wells Fargo vSafe - hard to believe that a big bank would start to offer a SaaS offering
  • New tools and markets digital ribbon, CohesiveIT

IDC Data shows that growth of SaaS ISV’s is the biggest layer of growth. The fastest growing services are complex, custom applications. IDC says this area will be bigger than the hosting area in the next 5 years. John said that Microsoft is spending a lot of time, money and energy on this right now.

John said:

“when Microsoft thinks about the building blocks that make-up the cloud, virtualization is a core piece of the puzzle. However you also need also identity services, Operating system with standard set of libraries to tap into… or remote storage that application developers will tap into.. Developers will consume these set of services, but you will also need a set of tools to manage your physical, virtual and geographically distributed datacenter infrastructure.” (that is where ScienceLogic comes in!!)

He went on to say,

“In some ways, virtualization enables decentralization – allows you to move from data centers, enables fast scaling out, business to move from on premise to the cloud and off again…. Automation is very important – this will help you scale your business – this is core to your future success.”

He talked about a new breed of knowledge worker: He called them Digital Natives (compared to grey haired guys like me who are left out of this category).

Definition of a Digital natives? A young adult who has grown up with cellphone, web based applications, Facebook account, as their primary mode of communications.

John commented that we are 5 years into a 10 year journey. Only 12% of all servers in the world are virtualized today… in the next 4 years it will double to 25%. This is the time to think through how this business will affect you.

‘Virtualization without good management is more dangerous than not using virtualization in the first place.” Thomas Bittman, Analyst Gartner

Patching and provisioning nightmare – no scalable administration – sprawl chaos.

John posed a question to the audience: How do you partner to provide the ISV support in application development with specific market needs… partner by keeping the hosting to SaaS solution providers up and running and provide the quality of service that their customers expect…. Complimentary services of storage and backup is a big win with a huge market-upside over the next 5 years..

John said that Microsoft continues to make  huge investments with Managed Service Providers.

• Investing in the windows hosting platform
• Hyper V and SQL2008 GoLive program - getting beta code out to service provides to find as many bugs as early as possible.
• Software + Services (S+S) incubation center program
• Partnering for cloud platform market offers
• Cloud platform guidance and best practices

During the Q&A, David Burns from Cincinnati Bell asked the very best question… “when are you going to make it easier for the Service Provider market to deal with the Microsoft Service Provider Licensing Agreement (SPLA) quarterly statistics pull and change the SPLA pricing to be more efficient and creative for the new Virtualization and Cloud offerings you have talked about?”

John’s response: “We hear your frustrations loud and clear and are working on some new ideas for the future version of SPLA.” My interpretation – “Dear Service Providers don’t expect anything new or easier to deal with in the next 6 months!”

His closing remarks: “Cloud is evolving = very early stages, lots of hype, but think of how this evolution will effect your business and how you can plug into it.”

OnAir was chosen for A380 service, with the initial rollout--especially for international flights--using the 64 Kbps Inmarsat satellite offering, which is too paltry for anything but limited text communication. When the recently launched Pacific satellite is active--which may take up to a year--OnAir and Qantas can upgrade to the luxurious nearly 500 Kbps per channel service.

The head of OnAir is pushing some mighty serious horsehockey, however, when he says as quoted by Flightglobal that he "is confident that once the full service is up and running, passengers will be able to access the Internet 'in exactly the same way as they can on the ground.'" That may be the case in terms of access, but not in terms of cost. The cost will be enormously high unless OnAir has a magic deal with Inmarsat that's previously undisclosed. I suspect a per MB charge will be in effect that will discourage much use. Calls and texting could be carried over the same system, of course.

Qantas plans to continue to work with Aeromobile for domestic service, with calls and texting available, on their Boeing 767-300s and Airbus A330-200s, Flightglobal reports. Aeromobile has plans to launch a full Internet service later this year using cached and live content. [link via Fabio Zambelli]

So, what are we hoping to gain by creating a network of security consulting and training experts to work with customers who want to implement the SDL?  Generally speaking, this question has a two-part answer:  First, Microsoft is, and always will be a partner-driven company - we rely on the skills and capabilities of our partners to provide specialized services and broad geographic coverage for Microsoft products and services.  Second, even though there are talented folks in the Microsoft Services organization, it's clear that we will need help from our partners to scale to meet the demand.  I can't tell you how many times the folks on the SDL team have been approached by people - after an executive briefing, or a session at TechEd - asking for guidance in implementing SDL in their own organizations.  When we look at the demand and pair it with the geographic diversity of our customer base, it's clear that a partner approach is the right answer.

Now a few words about the partners who will be participating in the pilot phase...

After the decision was made to work with partners on SDL delivery, we had two primary criteria that we had to address; partner quality, and manageability of the SDL Pro Network pilot. We have all seen instances where individuals or consulting organizations have represented themselves to the IT community as having security expertise when in reality the "experts for hire" were simply reading a page or two ahead of the customer in whatever security tome was "in vogue" at the time. 

Based on those observations, it was clear that partner "quality" was a critical criterion.  Fortunately for us, we didn't have to look far to satisfy our quality bar - many of the companies in the SDL Pro Network pilot have direct experience with executing portions of the SDL on our products, or have delivered services to Microsoft in a security context. Design reviews, code reviews, penetration testing, training and other tasks critical to SDL implementation were (and are) common fare for these folks.

Despite the customer demand for SDL that I alluded to above, starting with a small pilot was the right thing to do; a small group of trusted consultancies supports our imperative for quality and it allows us to pragmatically grow the SDL Pro Network as the market matures.  As we continue to evolve and innovate with the SDL, we'll have a strong core of partners to help drive the software security message.

Will we grow the SDL Pro Network?  The qualified answer is: "When the market demands it..." - there are a number of talented potential partners who meet the quality bar - and clearly, the need for security in software development will grow to demand additional talented specialists. However, it's our plan to begin with a small set of partners of known expertise, and then respond to growing demand as it materializes.

So there you have it - the nuanced beginning and bright future of the SDL Pro Network...  I invite your comments, and encourage you to check in at the SDL Portal as we continue to build out the program

Dan described the Managed Hosting and colocation sector as “on fire” The sector is humming – incredible growth, outstanding execution, blowing away expectations. I must say, looking back 5 years ago after the tech bubble collapse, I can’t believe how strong the sector bounced back from those very difficult times.

His presentation was focused on a future, and a longer view for the industry. The HTS conference is packed this year with the largest attendance of Datacenter owners, Managed hosting and colocation companies ever to attend this conference.

• Demand steady or increasing in all markets, driven largely by capex constraints and greater awareness and choices.
• Supply is growing more slowly in the past 18 months as the credit crunch has hurt the ability of providers to expand ( it is very hard to get mortgages, loans only on new datacenter projects). Expansion build-out of existing shells is occurring, but very little on spec.
• Demand Growth of 15% in 2008. (Steady and increasing in the out years) However after supply growth peaked at 7.5% in 2007 supply growth now has slowed to 5%
• Dan believes that supply growth will pick back up again in 2011

Conclusions – supply is tight, demand is high and growing…this very good news for the industry.

• Some other trends:
  • The green initiatives are more than just a trend as datacenter owners who don’t figure out how to maximize power efficiency will be painted as villains.
  • Internet traffic and services consumption are linked as Internet traffic growth has been doubling every year (2005-2007)
  • Prediction: 2011 -2012 - internet traffic will get an exaflood – it is coming with a new breed of applications (set to boxes HD Video, games, etc.) that will drive new traffic patterns. Growth driven by consumer broadband + applications (HD video) applications, which in turn will drive demand for Managed Hosting / Colocation Services…

Managed Hosting Services Highlights

• Incredibly fast growth 30%+
• $10 Billion worldwide revenue by end of 2008
• We’ll keep growth pace until at least 2011
• Good news, Dan believes that fears about slowdown in growth are wildly overblown.

Why is managed hosting growing so fast?

• Demographic shifts – new breed of IT employees that embrace outsourcing
• Growth in internet applications (SaaS) The acceptance and growth of browser based applications has been enormous!
• Ambiguity between web hosting and managed hosting has turned positive

Dan’s Key success factors managed hosting and services

• High margin services – and not too many – it is so tempting in our day to day business when a customer comes along and wants to come and give us money for a unique on-off service… at this point the answer has to be no – or do it through a partner.
• High level of support delivery is critical – don’t cut pay in support people or outsource support to save a nickel… what you are selling is support. Keep doing this well or you will head into a bad place… just as examples in retail like Home Depot and others who have struggled with customer service challenges – the whole business starts to slide into the toilet… High levels of support delivers a strong word of mouth buying cycle

Final thoughts, the industry is healthy and will continue to thrive. Customers are looking for the one stop shop, one company that is a trusted advisor to the customer. As customers place more eggs in the Managed Service bucket, the industry will need to tighten-up those SLA’s. Today some parts of the industry have been getting away with loose SLA’s… as customers get more sophisticated and have more on the line, they will become more demanding and require robust multi-component SLAs and back-it –up.