Warnings About Financial Institutions and Derivatives

Risks of Financial Institutions
The nature of a financial institution is that there are a lot of ways to go to hell in a bucket. You can push credit too far, do a dumb acquisition, leverage yourself excessively---its not just derivatives [that can bring about your downfall].

Maybe it's unique to us, but we're quite sensitive to financial risks. Financial institutions make us nervous when they're trying to do well.

We're exceptionally goosey of leveraged financial institutions. If they start talking about how good their risk management is, it makes us nervous.

We fret way earlier than other people. We've left a lot of money on the table through early fretting. It's the way we are -- you'll just have to live with it.

Derivatives
The system is almost insanely irresponsible. and what people think are fixes aren't realy fixes. It's so complicated I can't do it justice here - but you can't believe the trillions of dollars involved. You can't believe the complexity. You can't believe how difficult it is to do the accounting. You can't believe how big the incentives are to have wishful thinking about values and wishful thinking about ability to clear.

People don't think about the consequences of the consequences. People start by trying to hedge against interest rate changes, which is very difficult and complicated. Then, the hedges make the [reported profits] lumpy. So they use the new derivatives to smooth this. Well, now you've morphed into lying. This turns into a Mad Hatter's Tea Party. This happens to vast, sophisticated corporations.

Somebody has to step in and say, "We're not going to do it - it's just too hard."

I think a good litmus test of the mental and moral quality at any large institutions [with significant derivative exposure] would be to ask them, "Do you really understand your derivatives book?" Anyone who says yes is either crazy or lying.

It's easy to see [the dangers] when you talk about [what happened with] the energy derivatives - they went kerflooey. When [the companies] reached for the assets that were on their books, the money wasn't there. When it comes to financial assets, we haven't had any such denouement and the accountings hasn't changed so the denouement is ahead of us.

Derivatives are full of clauses that say if one party's credit gets downgraded then it has to put up collateral. It's like margin - you can go broke [just putting up more margin]. In an attempt to protect themselves, they've introduced instability. Nobody seems to recognize what a disaster of a system they've created. It's a demented system. 

In engineering people have a big margin of safety. But in the financial world, people don't give a damn about safety. They let it balloon and balloon and balloon. It's aided by false accounting. I'm more pessimistic about this than Warren is.

Accounting for Derivatives
I hate with a passion GAAP [Generally Accepted Accounting Principles] as applied to derivatives and swaps. JP Morgan sold out to this type of accounting to front-end revenues. I think it's a disgrace.

It's bonkers, and the accountants sold out. Everyone caved, adopted loose [accounting] standards, and created exotic derivatives linked to theoretical models. As a result, all kinds of earnings, blessed by accountants, are not really being earned. When you reach for the money, it melts away. It was never there.

It [accounting for derivatives] is just disgusting. It is a sewer, and if I'm right, there will be hell to pay in due course. All of you will have to prepare to deal with a blowup of derivative books.

Likelihood of a Derivatives Blowup
We tried to sell Gen Re's derivatives operations and couldn't, so we started liquidating it. We had to take big markdowns. I would confidently predict that most of the derivatives books of [this country's] major banks cannot be liquidated for anything like what they're carried on the books at. When the denouement will happen and how severe it will be, I don't know. But I fear the consequences could be fearsome. I think there are major problems, worse than in the energy field, and look at the destruction there.

I'll be amazed if we don't have some kind of significant [derivatives-related] blowup in the next five to ten years.

I think we're he only big corporation in America to be running off its derivative book.

It's a crazy idea for people who are already rich -  like Berkshire - to be in this business. It's a crazy business for big banks to be in.

Yo would be disgusted if you had a fair mind and spent a month really delving into a big derivative operation. You would think it was Lewis Carroll. You would think it was the Mad Hatter's Tea Party. And the false precision of these people is just unbelievable. They make the worst economics professors look like gods. Moreover, there is depravity augmenting the folly. Read the book F.I.A.S.C.O., by law professor and former derivative trader Frank Partnoy, an insider account of the depravity of derivative trading at one of the biggest and best-regarded Wall Street firms. This book will turn your stomach.

In the case of phishing, it is relatively clear. The developers believe the PKI book. The PKI people believe in the efficacy of digital signatures to prove stuff. The cryptographers believe in the perfection of mathematics, and the security world believes in the completeness of their own learning. They are all wrong, but only at the large level of generalisations, not at the detailed level of particular claims. Any one of the claims, in isolation can be shown to be true. But, generalising these brittle claims to be solid building blocks is a completely different question. Few of the claims are strong enough to partake in a general model without severe support; the general model of secure browsing is the best evidence of how it is secure in name only.

How then is it built? By accident or by design, a series of claims meet together in a holy ring of righteous architecture. Each of the proponents claim loudly that their part is strong, but the ring has no strength. Eventually, one of the claims in the links is broken. For phishing, the browsers never did have the potential to show authenticity; not only did they not have the security strength to do it (c.f., Skype v. CSRF), they didn't even do it in practice (recall the lost padlock?), and their recent efforts to show authenticity (c.f. colour debate) reveal how far they are from understanding even the goal, let alone the implementation. Once that link was broken, and money was made, all the others revealed their weaknesses, as crooks systematically worked to breach the lot.

If we look at the wider financial collapse, now underscored by the nationalisation of the worlds biggest financiers of mortgages ($ 5.3 trillion.... or is it $ 5.4 ?), we see the same pattern. The bankers believed in their product. The originators believed in their origination, the securitizers believed in their free market and accurate price, and the holders believed in the assets. The CDO, the subprime, the other 100 special names, each was a contract. Each was clear in and of itself. But, when placed end-to-end, in a line, with a bunch of other agreements, the claims that were good in isolation were not strong enough to participate in the super-claim made of the overall edifice.
The financial system was built like a bridge; each piece rested on the previous one. And then, the clever architects bent the bridge around ... and around again, until the first piece met the last. The elegant keystone of finance was to finally lift up the first one to rest on the last.

Thus, the banks themselves invested their capital in their own product.

Here’s an interesting post on High Earth Orbit about the usage and promotion of open source software for defense contracts. As a developer of open source tools, Andrew Turner of course brings up some “pros” for the government to push open source, but it’s the “cons” that are really interesting. A big “con” – the US government having something called “sovereign immunity” which apparently means something like it can’t be sued unless it consents to be sued. Hunh – the Republic of ScienceLogic-Land? Closing the loop here, a federal appeals court just boosted open-source software licenses by saying that any infringements can now get more severe remedies under copyright law (instead of contract law); here’s the case, Jacobsen v Katzer. But apparently not if it’s the US government?? Who knows more?

Does Linus Torvalds hate everyone except for developers? You have to check out this article on an email exchange he had with Network World this week, talking about how fed up he is with the “security circus”. Over the course of the exchange and some other comments from last month, he manages to blast security folk, OpenBSD (on security) in particular, vendors and PR people (of course). In the midst of the barrage of colorful language, it’s difficult to really get his point – which if you can dig it out, ends up being surprisingly sensible.

Sharon Taylor, Chief Architect of ITIL V3, recently wrote that with the release of the latest version of ITIL, BSM is now an ‘ITIL best practice.’ You say potato… “The distinction between IT and the business has blurred, and the language of IT has been replaced with the language of the business.”