I was reading the Security Bloggers Network feed this morning. I had missed a day or so and had a lot of articles to go through. I was also thinking of what could be the next topic suggested for members to blog about as part of our cross-promotion with Black Hat.  Than I realized there really was not any need.  The topic was obvious, DNS. I didn't do an actual count of how many times it was mentioned (as Mr Bump did with NAC vendors mentioned in the Information Week NAC survey), but there had to be at least a dozen and half, if not more articles on the great DNS leak of 2008. 

Dan Kaminsky's research was exemplary, but his naivete about people keeping the exploit under thier hat was not.  While Thomas Matasano apologized for his mistake, frankly from the moment Havlar Flake begain speculating on it, it was just a matter of time. 

Anyway, the cat is out of that bag, but something tells me that Dan K's presentation will still be a standing room only crowd in just a few weeks in Vegas.  But beyond that there are still a bunch of good topics to be discovered at Black Hat.  Not to mention lots of social activities brewing for both BH and DefCon.  I amreally looking forward to it. I would hope that no one is feeling the air out of the ballon on this one!

I recently spoke with a friend who left the DC region for a position in Silicon Valley. When I asked what he thought of the move he said, “Well, you have the same giant buildings with technology company names on the outside rising out of nowhere. You have the same high quality of engineer, but it seems that the difference is in DC, everyone wears a suit or a tie and looks down upon you if you grab a drink at lunch, or unwind like a younger person would.” 

I thought long and hard about his comment and decided that I would have to find out for myself. Is the DC area high tech community really that stuffy? Do people really not enjoy a good stiff drink after a long day? 

Last night, I attended the Twin Tech party, a sponsored happy hour with the worthy goal of “mixing up our vast, and somewhat fragmented technology culture here in the greater DC region”. I can officially say, the DC tech scene is changing and it’s changing fast.

Let’s start with the venue, instead of holding this event in the suburbs (McCormick & Schmicks anyone?) or at a large hotel bar, they chose to have the event at a trendy up-and-coming part of town in what can be best described as one of DC’s hottest bars, Local 16.  Not only that, because of the overwhelming response to attend, they had to rent out the bar next to it as well. 

I expected that I would arrive and find the place mostly empty and have a few suits there chatting over a drink or 2.  Instead I found myself at the overflow bar with a number of young up and comers in the space.  It was impossible to get into the original venue, and the second venue was packed as well!  Amongst all the people I found a friendly, happy, open vibe that allowed for great conversation, and interesting discussion about new technologies and the ideas people had about using and building the future. 

It was the best of both worlds for a young technologist.  I was able to discuss the topics and issues that were most facilitating and relevant (Social Networking from a corporate perspective, new blogging ideas, how new media is helping old media, etc), while still having a great time, and allowing myself to be properly refreshed for a hot DC summer night.

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My reply is that I don’t care must about reported dollar sales because these numbers are, for the most part, meaningless and mythical at this point in time. Large companies sell enterprise licenses and make up allocated numbers for the CEP/EP share of the pie based on a subjective formulation. They can sell an enterprise site license for $2,000,000 USD that includes CEP/EP software and claim 20% is CEP revenue, regardless of if the software is used or not.

Small companies nearly give software away with the hope of developing a strong public reference client, which are few and far between in 2008. Soon, I will start a Google spreadsheet, similar to what we did last year on this topic. Some folks don’t seem to like this initiative because, unfortunately, we will see that for this half of 2008, this year has been very lean for CEP/EP. Some would prefer I blog as a cheerleading evangelist versus an objective analyst. Go Fight Win! Rah Rah Rah!

Much of the current gloomy situation, of course, is because the entire market has fallen and IT spending is down. Financial companies announce record losses. Bankruptcies and restructuring are in the daily news.

In this depressed market, some companies have tried to tie the subprime crash to CEP, somehow implying that CEP would have helped, but that positioning is mostly fantasy. I work in the field of risk management at the corporate level and the current problems are not caused by a lack of technology, it is simply corporate greed - corporations taking high risks to stay competitive in a bull market and then they experience a frighteningly negative reversal during a market free fall.

Of course, the US Federal Reserve did not help matters when they decided to poke a gaping hole in the real estate bubble by dramatically raising interest rates without thinking about how they would manage the consequences, but that is another story! After all, the current top government executives in Washington DC are so politically, scientifically and economically incompetent that all we can do is hold our breath and count the days.

One risk management colleague often says,

“When then tide is high, you can’t see that the swimmers are naked.”

….and so it is in business. The current problems in the global market are based on human, social, and political errors and incompetence; nothing that technology can cure at this point in the game. So, the entire market is in decline, and folks are overhyping all software to keep the buzz going, as if CEP or SOA or BPM would have helped stopped the current global meltdown. Yes, CEP can stop global warming! Buy one today, save a cute polar bear!

Then again, maybe we only need a CEP engine in Washington; even a simple rules-based one would be good. Naturally, some would suggest that we need Neural Nets and Bayesian analytics; but I think just a simple rules-engine looking out the window that can process if-then-else conditions would be a great improvement over the mind-numbing leadership in Washington today.